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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.