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The Ashes could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test team being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only sit out the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a much more significant change with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.